Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Short the bond


The fed raises for a 13th time to try and cool the housing market and what did the bonds do?? go up +1 ^03?! Everyone is saying the CPI will come in tame tomorrow with energy prices being down the previous month. I think their could be a spike on the news until the traders start thinking about this months energy prices.

The plan is to short 1/2 position now, and 1/2 into the spike

short ZB 113^01

What now?

MARKET OUTLOOK the year end powers that be want to keep their bonuses and
will continue to prop up this pig of a market in the face of $62 oil , $15
nat gas and a 13th fed tightening. the dollar got pounded after hours and
futures are down. i want to short on any strength with tight stops.


A chart from yesterday from before and after the fed announcement. The $Trin was decreasing all day coiling for an explosive move and we got one.

Fed day gameplan is always cover shorts before announcement, go long... wait 15 min , sell and go short.

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

Safe Haven | The Fed Opts for Growth, Ignoring Imbalances and Inflation

Safe Haven | The Fed Opts for Growth, Ignoring Imbalances and Inflation
Richard Russell dug up the following quote from Alan Greenspan - from 1996:

"The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market -- triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, the Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929, the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and consequent demoralizing of business confidence." Alan Greenspan, The Objectivist, 1966

Sunday, May 15, 2005


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Bloomberg.com: Bonds

Bloomberg.com: Bonds

bond short note

``There is just a very good bid for Treasuries,'' said Paul Calvetti, head of proprietary Treasury trading at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``They are definitely fundamentally rich, but this situation could persist.''

Concern that the 10-year note was too expensive led Barclays debt strategists on May 13 to recommend ``an outright short'' position, or bets against a further increase in the notes.